Three or four times a year we publish a measured read on Bitcoin — price, network state, mining economics, corporate treasuries, and policy. We track our own prior calls in the open and revise when the data demands it.
A round trip from a 21-month low at $57,950 to $81K and back, the summer the corporate treasury trade broke, three straight months of record ETF flow swings, and a 2026 base case cut to $85K–$110K.
Predictions scorecard against Fall '25 and Winter '26, the May on-chain and market picture, public-company treasuries, legislative status, and a 2026 base case revised down to $110K–$140K.
Performance vs. our Fall 2025 predictions, current network state, mining economics, forward projections, institutional adoption, and scenario analysis. 2026 base case trimmed to $135K–$165K.
The inaugural report: a probability-weighted price trajectory through 2035, mining economics, key milestones, and the supply/demand scarcity thesis. Weighted 2035 expected value $1.15M.
AI bug hunting, faster patches and the quantum debate: who is doing the work, and what it means for a company holding bitcoin.
Not your keys, not your coins. The six custody models from exchange accounts to institutional custody, the risks each one relocates, and the failures that sit outside all of them.