Third installment in our seasonal series. We review prior predictions against current data, summarize network and market conditions through May 2026, and update our 2026 scenarios.
REPORT DATE MAY 19 2026 · PRIOR INSTALLMENTS FALL 2025 · WINTER 2026
A snapshot of price, flows, network, and policy entering Spring 2026 — and why we are revising the 2026 base case down again.
Bitcoin is trading around $77,000, roughly 27% below the year-ago print and well below the path implied by either of our prior reports. ETF flows reversed sharply in mid-May after a strong April. Network hashrate touched 1 ZH/s briefly and has since pulled back. Corporate treasuries continue to add. US legislation establishing a formal Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is still in committee.
Our Fall 2025 base case for 2026 year-end ($200K) is no longer credible at this point in the year. The Winter 2026 revision ($135K–$165K) also looks high given the current setup. We are cutting the 2026 base case again and explain the reasoning below.
2026 year-end base case revised to $110K–$140K. We expect the bulk of the institutional bid we previously modeled for mid-2026 to land late 2026 or early 2027 instead. Long-term projections (2030–2035) are unchanged.
Comparing Fall 2025 and Winter 2026 forecasts against current market data.
| Forecast | Fall 2025 | Winter 2026 Revision | Actual (May 19, 2026) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 EOY price (weighted) | $136,000 | ~$88,300 (actual) | — | Missed high by 35% |
| 2026 EOY price (base) | $200,000 | $135K–$165K | $77,119 spot | Trending below revised |
| 2026 EOY price (bear) | $62,000 | $55K–$75K | $77,119 spot | Within Winter bear range |
| Network hashrate | 2,000–3,000 EH/s (LT) | on track | 998 EH/s | On trajectory |
| Institutional adoption pace | accelerating Q4'25 | delayed to Q2–Q3'26 | 1.19M BTC corp held | Quantity yes, timing slipped |
| ETF inflow resumption | — | Q1 2026 | $65B YTD; volatile | Mixed — see §06 |
Two observations. First, we underestimated how long the post-cycle consolidation would last. The structural drivers we identified are materializing — institutional absorption, supply scarcity, sovereign accumulation — but on a slower timeline than the price models assumed. Second, our bear cases have been more accurate than our base cases across both prior reports. We've adjusted weighting accordingly below.
On the network metrics alone, the strongest reading across all three reports.
Briefly cleared 1 ZH/s in mid-April before drifting lower with post-halving margin compression. Still up materially YoY despite two difficulty cuts.
Sixth difficulty cut of 2026 came in May; next adjustment May 30 estimated to step down to 133.06T. Healthy oscillation, not distress.
Pools representing roughly three-quarters of hashrate adopted an open block-construction standard in May — a quiet but real censorship-resistance milestone.
Hashrate is up year-over-year despite a sustained sub-$80K price, which in prior cycles produced more severe miner capitulation than we are seeing now. Difficulty is self-correcting on schedule. Block-construction governance moved measurably toward greater decentralization in May.
Healthy network metrics are not a price catalyst on their own, but they remove a category of downside risk that mattered in earlier drawdowns: a self-reinforcing miner-sell / hashrate-collapse spiral. We do not see that risk currently active.
Hashprice compression has split the sector into low-cost survivors and a consolidating long tail.
With block subsidy at 1.5625 BTC post-halving and BTC near $77K, hashprice has compressed materially since our Winter 2026 snapshot. The sector has split into industrial-scale operators with power costs below 3¢/kWh that remain profitable, and a long tail that is either consolidating, converting capacity to AI/HPC workloads, or running at thin margins.
The Fall 2025 forecast called for miner capitulation in late 2025; that played out in December broadly on schedule. The subsequent recovery has been narrower and slower than our Winter report assumed. If BTC does not reclaim $90K through Q3, we expect a second wave of small-operator consolidation.
What we are watching: public-miner hashrate growth flat for two consecutive months — the first such stretch since 2023. That marks the marginal operator finally exiting, which is typically when the supply-side floor sets. We are not there yet.
174 public companies hold ~1,187,898 BTC as of May 12 — over 5% of total supply. Q1 net additions of ~50,351 BTC ran at 2.8× daily global mining output.
| Company | BTC Held | % of Supply | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy (MSTR) | ~843,738 | ~4.0% | Added 24,869 BTC for ~$2B in mid-May. |
| Twenty One Capital | 43,514 | 0.21% | New entrant; rapidly climbed to #2 corporate holder. |
| Metaplanet | 40,177 | 0.19% | Japan-listed; ~$2.2B NAV; serial issuer of equity for BTC. |
| MARA Holdings | 35,303 | 0.17% | Largest pure-play miner-treasury hybrid. |
| All other public cos (170+) | ~225,000 | ~1.1% | Long tail; mostly under 5K BTC each. |
One change to flag this quarter: Strategy publicly signaled willingness to sell bitcoin under certain conditions to defend shareholder value, a departure from prior never-sell messaging. We do not expect Strategy to be a meaningful seller in any reasonable scenario, but the shift matters for how we model the durability of the broader corporate bid. We continue to assume corporate treasury demand is opportunistic rather than mechanical, and the announcement supports that assumption.
April said one thing; May said another. The velocity of the reversal matters more than the absolute number.
Peak month of 2026.
Snapped a six-week inflow streak.
Second-largest single-day redemption of 2026.
Year-to-date net flows across the largest US spot bitcoin ETFs remain above $65B, so the May outflows are small relative to the cumulative position. The speed of the reversal matters more than the absolute number: a $530M single-day inflow on May 4 turned into a $448M single-day outflow on May 18, which reads as tactical positioning rather than structural unwind.
The pattern is consistent with risk-off rotation by tactical allocators (CTAs, model-driven funds) rather than a thesis change in the longer-duration RIA channel we flagged in the Winter report. We are watching whether redemptions spread from IBIT to FBTC and the smaller funds. That would change the read.
From a 2025 executive order to the statutory scaffolding being built around it through 2026.
The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve has existed as policy since the March 2025 executive order directing Treasury to retain — rather than auction — its ~328,372 BTC of forfeited holdings. Through 2026, the bills below are building the statutory framework around it.
Our base case does not assume the BITCOIN Act passes in 2026. Passage would meaningfully change the supply-absorption story and we would update our outlook at that point. We are not building it into projections in advance.
Probability weighting: Bear 25% / Base 55% / Bull 20%. Bear weight increased and base reduced versus Winter 2026. Long-term (2030–2035) thesis unchanged.
Persistent macro risk-off, ETF outflows continue into Q3, no Reserve legislation. We end 2026 roughly where we started.Fall '25 was $62K · Winter '26 was $55K–$75K
Macro stabilizes Q3, RIA channel resumes accumulation, treasuries keep absorbing supply at ~2× mining rate, BITCOIN Act passes committee but not floor.Fall '25 was $200K · Winter '26 was $135K–$165K
BITCOIN Act passes, first sovereign purchase announced, ETF flows return to April pace, hashrate clears 1.2 ZH/s on energy buildout.Fall '25 was $270K · Winter '26 was $200K–$250K
Weighted midpoint: ~$118,000 year-end 2026. Versus prior reports: Fall 2025 weighted midpoint was $188K; Winter 2026 implied ~$155K. We update where the data has changed materially rather than holding to a published number for its own sake.
Directional calls correct; timing too early. The path is flatter and lumpier than modeled — which is the normal historical pattern.
The structural Bitcoin thesis we set out in Fall 2025 — supply-side scarcity, institutional absorption, sovereign accumulation, illiquid-float compression — is intact on every component. Corporate holdings are at all-time highs. Network hashrate is near record levels. US legislation to materially expand sovereign holdings is in committee. Spot ETFs have absorbed $65B of net flows year-to-date.
Price is currently $77,119.
Our directional calls have been correct. Our timing has been too early across both prior reports. The institutional bid is real but slower than retail-cycle intuition tends to assume. The legislative path is real but operates on a multi-quarter timeline. Supply absorption is real but is being offset, for now, by tactical outflows from the marginal price-setting flow (spot ETFs, leveraged longs).
Long-term projections from Fall 2025 remain unchanged: weighted $476K by 2030, weighted $1.15M by 2035. The path to those numbers is flatter and more uneven than we modeled, which is also the normal historical pattern in retrospect.
Next report: Summer 2026.
This report has been prepared by Carroll Park Capital to provide investors with a directional outlook on Bitcoin's potential price trajectory and on-chain state. This analysis is a hypothetical exercise based on publicly available market data, historical patterns, and probability-weighted scenario modeling. This is not financial advice. All projections are speculative. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.