Q1 2026. We assess actual performance against our Fall 2025 forecast, survey the current network state, and recalibrate near-term projections.
Network fundamentals remain robust after the December capitulation; near-term price projections come down.
Three months into the forecast period, we mark prior calls to market and recalibrate where needed.
In our Fall 2025 Bitcoin Network Report, Carroll Park Capital published probability-weighted price projections and network metrics through 2035. We now assess actual performance against those predictions and recalibrate where necessary.
| Metric | Fall 2025 Prediction | Actual (Jan 2026) | Variance | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC Price (2025 EOY) | Bear $77K · Base $140K · Bull $187K | $88,305 | Below base case | ⚠ Tracking below base |
| Network Hashrate | 1,040 EH/s (Oct baseline) | 1,024 EH/s | -1.5% | ✓ Within expectations |
| USD Hashprice | $51/PH/day (Oct) | $39/PH/day | -23.5% | ⚠ Steeper decline than forecast |
| Institutional Holders | 338 (Oct baseline) | 338 | Flat | ✓ Consolidation phase |
| Spot ETF AUM | $58B (Oct baseline) | $58B | Flat | ✓ Stable base |
| 2026 Full Year (Updated) | Bear $62K · Base $200K · Bull $270K | — | See revised below | 📊 Recalibrated |
Key observation: at $88K, BTC tracks between our Bear ($77K) and Base ($140K) year-end 2025 scenarios — below the 60%-weighted base case. We read this as consolidation, not deterioration. The December capitulation matched our Fall forecast, though hashprice compression was steeper.
Down from Fall: $62K. Broader crypto crackdown, sustained macro weakness, extended miner capitulation.
Down from Fall: $200K. Delayed institutional flows into Q2–Q3; conservative post-capitulation recovery.
Down from Fall: $270K. Accelerated sovereign adoption, ETF inflow surge, miner supply crunch amplifies the shock.
Methodology note: we update near-term projections each quarter based on observed market behavior. Long-term 2030–2035 projections are unchanged. This report supersedes Fall 2025 near-term projections for 2026–2027.
Post-capitulation snapshot of hashrate, difficulty, supply, and holder distribution.
Key milestone: the 20 millionth Bitcoin is projected to be mined on March 15, 2026 — 95.2% of total supply — leaving only ~1M BTC to be distributed over the next 114 years.
| Metric | Current Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Daily Active Addresses | 700K – 1M | Quality metric; not speculative peak |
| Non-Zero Balance Addresses | 54 million | Growing steadily |
| Long-Term Holders (LTH) | 74% of supply | Held 155+ days; strong conviction |
| Whale Wallets (1K+ BTC) | ~2,100 addresses | Concentrated ownership |
| Institutional Holders | 338 entities | Doubled year-over-year |
| Spot ETF AUM | $58 billion | January 2026 |
| Global Bitcoin Owners (Est.) | 100M+ | ~1.25% of global population |
December's capitulation cleared marginal capacity and improved economics for the survivors.
A meaningful miner capitulation occurred in December 2025, per JPMorgan. Network hashrate fell roughly 30 EH/s (-3% month-over-month) as marginal operations shut down or reduced capacity. We read this as market-clearing of weak operators, which historically precedes more stable network economics rather than the reverse.
Margin squeeze: at $39/PH/day, only miners with sub-$0.04/kWh power and sub-10 J/TH machines hold acceptable margins. December removed ~3% of less-efficient capacity, improving economics for survivors.
Probability-weighted modeling across Bear (20%), Base (60%), and Bull (20%) pathways.
These scenarios reflect materially different assumptions regarding regulatory frameworks, institutional adoption velocity, macroeconomic conditions, and technological development.
| Date | Milestone | Supply Mined | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 15, 2026 | 20M BTC Mined | 95.2% | Psychological threshold; <1M remaining |
| April 2028 | Halving #5 | 97.7% | Issuance 450 → 225 BTC/day |
| 2030 | Ultra-Scarcity | 98.1% | 70%+ supply illiquid (base case) |
| 2032 | Halving #6 | 98.9% | Issuance 225 → 112.5 BTC/day |
| 2036 | Mature Reserve Asset | 99.0% | 75%+ supply illiquid (base case) |
338 disclosed institutional holders as of January 2026 — roughly double year-over-year.
This cohort includes publicly traded companies, private firms, investment funds, and early sovereign entities. The $58 billion in spot ETF AUM provides a convenient, regulated vehicle for traditional allocators.
Network-health scores across the three probability-weighted pathways.
Fundamentals enter 2026 in better shape than the headline hashrate volatility suggests.
The December 2025 miner capitulation removed marginal capacity and improved unit economics for the operators that remained. With 94.8% of total supply mined and the 20 millionth BTC projected for March 2026, the long-anticipated supply tightening is now near.
For institutional inquiries and treasury consultation
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